Pafos vs Midtjylland: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45
The model gives Pafos a 31% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Midtjylland 42%. Pafos's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 34%. Midtjylland's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 80%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Pafos: top 8 | Pafos: through | Midtjylland: top 8 | Midtjylland: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 5% | 50% | 32% | 90% |
| Pafos win | 12% | 75% | 12% | 80% |
| Draw | 2% | 48% | 25% | 89% |
| Midtjylland win | 1% | 34% | 51% | 98% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Midtjylland
- MD1DEgnatia A1–1
- MD2Sint-Truidense H22 October
- MD3Ajax H5 November
- MD4Pafos A this match26 November
- MD5Lincoln Red Imps A10 December
- MD6Hajduk Split H17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Pafos vs Midtjylland?
The model gives Pafos a 31% chance of winning and Midtjylland 42%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Pafos vs Midtjylland?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pafos and 1.4 for Midtjylland, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Pafos?
Pafos's qualification chance is 50% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 48% and a defeat 34%.
What does this match mean for Midtjylland?
Midtjylland's qualification chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 89% and a defeat 80%.
When is Pafos vs Midtjylland played?
Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 4).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Mjällby
- Ajax – Thun
- Brighton – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Getafe
- Jablonec – Lugano
- Kauno Žalgiris – Riga FC
- Hearts – Monaco
- Egnatia – Lincoln Red Imps
- Brann – Aarhus
- Nordsjælland – Panathinaikos
- Borac – Atalanta
- Hajduk Split – Sint-Truidense
- Inter Escaldes – Copenhagen
- Gent – Crvena Zvezda
- CSKA Sofia – Trabzonspor
- Braga – KuPS Kuopio
- Freiburg – Twente