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Trabzonspor vs Freiburg: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Trabzonspor3rd, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Freiburg7th, 3 pts
30%Trabzonspor win
26%Draw
44%Freiburg win

The model gives Trabzonspor a 30% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Freiburg 44%. Trabzonspor's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 88%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 93%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeTrabzonspor: top 8Trabzonspor: throughFreiburg: top 8Freiburg: through
Now41%93%56%97%
Trabzonspor win67%99%34%93%
Draw39%95%48%97%
Freiburg win24%88%76%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
24%Trabzonspor clean sheet
31%Freiburg clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Trabzonspor

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WKuPS Kuopio A4–2
  2. MD2Hearts H22 October
  3. MD3Freiburg H this match5 November
  4. MD4CSKA Sofia A26 November
  5. MD5Jablonec H10 December
  6. MD6Crvena Zvezda A17 December

Freiburg

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WJablonec H3–2
  2. MD2Monaco A22 October
  3. MD3Trabzonspor A this match5 November
  4. MD4Twente H26 November
  5. MD5Panathinaikos H10 December
  6. MD6Kauno Žalgiris A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Trabzonspor vs Freiburg?

The model gives Trabzonspor a 30% chance of winning and Freiburg 44%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Freiburg?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Trabzonspor and 1.4 for Freiburg, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Trabzonspor?

Trabzonspor's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 88%.

What does this match mean for Freiburg?

Freiburg's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 93%.

When is Trabzonspor vs Freiburg played?

Thursday 5 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →