Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
The model gives Lugano a 57% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Kauno Žalgiris 19%. Lugano's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 65%. Kauno Žalgiris's chance of going through is 32% now: a win would take it to 61%, a defeat to 21%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Lugano: top 8 | Lugano: through | Kauno Žalgiris: top 8 | Kauno Žalgiris: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 23% | 86% | 2% | 32% |
| Lugano win | 33% | 95% | <1% | 21% |
| Draw | 12% | 80% | 1% | 35% |
| Kauno Žalgiris win | 6% | 65% | 6% | 61% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Lugano
- MD1WCrvena Zvezda H3–2
- MD2Getafe A22 October
- MD3Kauno Žalgiris H this match5 November
- MD4Jablonec A26 November
- MD5Copenhagen A10 December
- MD6Sint-Truidense H17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
The model gives Lugano a 57% chance of winning and Kauno Žalgiris 19%, with a draw at 23%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lugano and 0.9 for Kauno Žalgiris, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.
What does this match mean for Lugano?
Lugano's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 80% and a defeat 65%.
What does this match mean for Kauno Žalgiris?
Kauno Žalgiris's qualification chance is 32% right now. A win would make it 61%, a draw 35% and a defeat 21%.
When is Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris played?
Thursday 5 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Aarhus – Braga
- Atalanta – Kairat Almaty
- Midtjylland – Ajax
- Thun – Hearts
- Crvena Zvezda – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – Gent
- Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split
- Mjällby – Borac
- Trabzonspor – Freiburg
- Monaco – Nordsjælland
- Copenhagen – Iberia Tbilisi
- Twente – Pafos
- Getafe – Brighton
- Sint-Truidense – Brann
- Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia
- Riga FC – Jablonec
- Universitatea Craiova – Egnatia