CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
The model gives CSKA Sofia a 31% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Trabzonspor 43%. CSKA Sofia's chance of going through is 43% now: a win would take it to 67%, a defeat to 26%. Trabzonspor's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | CSKA Sofia: top 8 | CSKA Sofia: through | Trabzonspor: top 8 | Trabzonspor: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 3% | 43% | 41% | 93% |
| CSKA Sofia win | 8% | 67% | 20% | 86% |
| Draw | 1% | 41% | 33% | 93% |
| Trabzonspor win | 1% | 26% | 61% | 99% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
CSKA Sofia
- MD1LMonaco H1–2
- MD2Nordsjælland A22 October
- MD3Panathinaikos A5 November
- MD4Trabzonspor H this match26 November
- MD5KuPS Kuopio A10 December
- MD6Thun H17 December
Trabzonspor
- MD1WKuPS Kuopio A4–2
- MD2Hearts H22 October
- MD3Freiburg H5 November
- MD4CSKA Sofia A this match26 November
- MD5Jablonec H10 December
- MD6Crvena Zvezda A17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor?
The model gives CSKA Sofia a 31% chance of winning and Trabzonspor 43%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for CSKA Sofia and 1.4 for Trabzonspor, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for CSKA Sofia?
CSKA Sofia's qualification chance is 43% right now. A win would make it 67%, a draw 41% and a defeat 26%.
What does this match mean for Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor's qualification chance is 93% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 86%.
When is CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor played?
Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 4).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Mjällby
- Ajax – Thun
- Brighton – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Getafe
- Jablonec – Lugano
- Kauno Žalgiris – Riga FC
- Hearts – Monaco
- Egnatia – Lincoln Red Imps
- Pafos – Midtjylland
- Brann – Aarhus
- Nordsjælland – Panathinaikos
- Borac – Atalanta
- Hajduk Split – Sint-Truidense
- Inter Escaldes – Copenhagen
- Gent – Crvena Zvezda
- Braga – KuPS Kuopio
- Freiburg – Twente