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Hearts vs Monaco: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Hearts20th, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Monaco9th, 3 pts
23%Hearts win
24%Draw
53%Monaco win

The model gives Hearts a 23% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Monaco 53%. Hearts's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 51%. Monaco's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeHearts: top 8Hearts: throughMonaco: top 8Monaco: through
Now8%63%65%99%
Hearts win21%88%39%96%
Draw7%65%54%99%
Monaco win2%51%82%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.7Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
19%Hearts clean sheet
37%Monaco clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–210%
1–07%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Hearts

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DNordsjælland H1–1
  2. MD2Trabzonspor A22 October
  3. MD3Thun A5 November
  4. MD4Monaco H this match26 November
  5. MD5Borac H10 December
  6. MD6Pafos A17 December

Monaco

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WCSKA Sofia A2–1
  2. MD2Freiburg H22 October
  3. MD3Nordsjælland H5 November
  4. MD4Hearts A this match26 November
  5. MD5Brighton A10 December
  6. MD6Lincoln Red Imps H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Hearts vs Monaco?

The model gives Hearts a 23% chance of winning and Monaco 53%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Hearts vs Monaco?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Hearts and 1.7 for Monaco, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Hearts?

Hearts's qualification chance is 63% right now. A win would make it 88%, a draw 65% and a defeat 51%.

What does this match mean for Monaco?

Monaco's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 96%.

When is Hearts vs Monaco played?

Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →