Knockout Math
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CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45

CSKA SofiaLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 1
MonacoLeague phase not started yet
20%CSKA Sofia win
23%Draw
56%Monaco win

The model gives CSKA Sofia a 20% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Monaco 56%. CSKA Sofia's chance of going through is 53% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 43%. Monaco's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

CSKA Sofia: top 8CSKA Sofia: throughMonaco: top 8Monaco: through
Now8%53%52%95%
CSKA Sofia win20%78%27%86%
Draw7%55%38%93%
Monaco win3%43%66%99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%

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