Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truidense: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
The model gives Hajduk Split a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sint-Truidense 30%. Hajduk Split's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 81%. Sint-Truidense's chance of going through is 80% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 69%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Hajduk Split: top 8 | Hajduk Split: through | Sint-Truidense: top 8 | Sint-Truidense: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 34% | 91% | 19% | 80% |
| Hajduk Split win | 52% | 98% | 8% | 69% |
| Draw | 25% | 91% | 16% | 81% |
| Sint-Truidense win | 15% | 81% | 38% | 96% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Hajduk Split
- MD1WAjax H2–1
- MD2Thun A22 October
- MD3Lincoln Red Imps A5 November
- MD4Sint-Truidense H this match26 November
- MD5Nordsjælland H10 December
- MD6Midtjylland A17 December
Sint-Truidense
- MD1WIberia Tbilisi H2–0
- MD2Midtjylland A22 October
- MD3Brann H5 November
- MD4Hajduk Split A this match26 November
- MD5Ajax H10 December
- MD6Lugano A17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truidense?
The model gives Hajduk Split a 44% chance of winning and Sint-Truidense 30%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truidense?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hajduk Split and 1.1 for Sint-Truidense, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Hajduk Split?
Hajduk Split's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 91% and a defeat 81%.
What does this match mean for Sint-Truidense?
Sint-Truidense's qualification chance is 80% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 81% and a defeat 69%.
When is Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truidense played?
Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 4).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Mjällby
- Ajax – Thun
- Brighton – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Getafe
- Jablonec – Lugano
- Kauno Žalgiris – Riga FC
- Hearts – Monaco
- Egnatia – Lincoln Red Imps
- Pafos – Midtjylland
- Brann – Aarhus
- Nordsjælland – Panathinaikos
- Borac – Atalanta
- Inter Escaldes – Copenhagen
- Gent – Crvena Zvezda
- CSKA Sofia – Trabzonspor
- Braga – KuPS Kuopio
- Freiburg – Twente