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Inter Escaldes vs Copenhagen: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Inter Escaldes34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Copenhagen2nd, 3 pts
12%Inter Escaldes win
19%Draw
69%Copenhagen win

The model gives Inter Escaldes a 12% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Copenhagen 69%. Inter Escaldes's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 23%, a defeat to 3%. Copenhagen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 94%. The most likely score is 0–2 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeInter Escaldes: top 8Inter Escaldes: throughCopenhagen: top 8Copenhagen: through
Now<1%6%69%99%
Inter Escaldes win<1%23%38%94%
Draw<1%8%53%98%
Copenhagen win<1%3%78%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.8 – 2.1Expected goals
48%Both teams score
56%3 or more goals
12%Inter Escaldes clean sheet
46%Copenhagen clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–39%
1–37%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Inter Escaldes

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LMjällby A0–2
  2. MD2Universitatea Craiova H22 October
  3. MD3Crvena Zvezda A5 November
  4. MD4Copenhagen H this match26 November
  5. MD5Getafe A10 December
  6. MD6Aarhus H17 December

Copenhagen

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WBraga H3–0
  2. MD2Crvena Zvezda A22 October
  3. MD3Iberia Tbilisi H5 November
  4. MD4Inter Escaldes A this match26 November
  5. MD5Lugano H10 December
  6. MD6Universitatea Craiova A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Inter Escaldes vs FC Copenhagen?

The model gives Inter Escaldes a 12% chance of winning and Copenhagen 69%, with a draw at 19%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Inter Escaldes vs FC Copenhagen?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 0.8 for Inter Escaldes and 2.1 for Copenhagen, and the match has 3 or more goals in 56% of cases.

What does this match mean for Inter Escaldes?

Inter Escaldes's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 23%, a draw 8% and a defeat 3%.

What does this match mean for Copenhagen?

Copenhagen's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 94%.

When is Inter Escaldes vs Copenhagen played?

Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →