Knockout Math
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Borac vs Atalanta: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

BoracLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 4
AtalantaLeague phase not started yet
9%Borac win
16%Draw
75%Atalanta win

The model gives Borac a 9% chance of winning, a draw 16% and Atalanta 75%. Borac's chance of going through is 35% now: a win would take it to 67%, a defeat to 29%. Atalanta's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Borac: top 8Borac: throughAtalanta: top 8Atalanta: through
Now3%35%85%99%
Borac win12%67%60%97%
Draw4%44%72%99%
Atalanta win1%29%91%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–213%
0–111%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%

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