Borac vs Atalanta: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
The model gives Borac a 9% chance of winning, a draw 15% and Atalanta 76%. Borac's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 62%, a defeat to 22%. Atalanta's top-8 chance is 90% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 69%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Borac: top 8 | Borac: through | Atalanta: top 8 | Atalanta: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 1% | 27% | 90% | >99% |
| Borac win | 6% | 62% | 69% | 99% |
| Draw | 1% | 37% | 79% | >99% |
| Atalanta win | <1% | 22% | 95% | 100% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Borac
- MD1LPanathinaikos A1–2
- MD2KuPS Kuopio H22 October
- MD3Mjällby A5 November
- MD4Atalanta H this match26 November
- MD5Hearts A10 December
- MD6Riga FC H17 December
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Borac vs Atalanta?
The model gives Borac a 9% chance of winning and Atalanta 76%, with a draw at 15%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 0–2 (13%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
Will both teams score in Borac vs Atalanta?
The model gives both teams scoring a 45% chance. Expected goals are 0.7 for Borac and 2.4 for Atalanta, and the match has 3 or more goals in 60% of cases.
What does this match mean for Borac?
Borac's qualification chance is 27% right now. A win would make it 62%, a draw 37% and a defeat 22%.
What does this match mean for Atalanta?
Atalanta's top-8 chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 79% and a defeat 69%.
When is Borac vs Atalanta played?
Thursday 26 November, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 4).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Mjällby
- Ajax – Thun
- Brighton – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Getafe
- Jablonec – Lugano
- Kauno Žalgiris – Riga FC
- Hearts – Monaco
- Egnatia – Lincoln Red Imps
- Pafos – Midtjylland
- Brann – Aarhus
- Nordsjælland – Panathinaikos
- Hajduk Split – Sint-Truidense
- Inter Escaldes – Copenhagen
- Gent – Crvena Zvezda
- CSKA Sofia – Trabzonspor
- Braga – KuPS Kuopio
- Freiburg – Twente