Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga FC: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45
The model gives Kauno Žalgiris a 42% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Riga FC 32%. Kauno Žalgiris's chance of going through is 32% now: a win would take it to 51%, a defeat to 13%. Riga FC's chance of going through is 48% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 30%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Kauno Žalgiris: top 8 | Kauno Žalgiris: through | Riga FC: top 8 | Riga FC: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 32% | 3% | 48% |
| Kauno Žalgiris win | 4% | 51% | 1% | 30% |
| Draw | 1% | 24% | 2% | 44% |
| Riga FC win | <1% | 13% | 9% | 75% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga FC?
The model gives Kauno Žalgiris a 42% chance of winning and Riga FC 32%, with a draw at 26%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga FC?
The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kauno Žalgiris and 1.2 for Riga FC, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.
What does this match mean for Kauno Žalgiris?
Kauno Žalgiris's qualification chance is 32% right now. A win would make it 51%, a draw 24% and a defeat 13%.
What does this match mean for Riga FC?
Riga FC's qualification chance is 48% right now. A win would make it 75%, a draw 44% and a defeat 30%.
When is Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga FC played?
Thursday 26 November, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 4).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Mjällby
- Ajax – Thun
- Brighton – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Getafe
- Jablonec – Lugano
- Hearts – Monaco
- Egnatia – Lincoln Red Imps
- Pafos – Midtjylland
- Brann – Aarhus
- Nordsjælland – Panathinaikos
- Borac – Atalanta
- Hajduk Split – Sint-Truidense
- Inter Escaldes – Copenhagen
- Gent – Crvena Zvezda
- CSKA Sofia – Trabzonspor
- Braga – KuPS Kuopio
- Freiburg – Twente