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Conference League matchday 1: what every team needs

← Conference League: full table and chances

Updated 28 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

Conference League matchday 1 is played on 15 October across 18 fixtures. The most is at stake for Egnatia: a win would lift their chances of going through to 70%, a defeat would drop them to 28%.

Matchday 1 fixtures

Model probabilities for each fixture: home win, draw, away win.

  1. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 CSKA Sofia – Monaco 20% · 23% · 56%
  2. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Egnatia – Midtjylland 19% · 23% · 58%
  3. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Gent – Aarhus 50% · 25% · 25%
  4. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Hajduk Split – Ajax 28% · 26% · 46%
  5. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 KuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor 29% · 26% · 45%
  6. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Lugano – Crvena Zvezda 36% · 26% · 38%
  7. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Mjällby – Inter Escaldes 67% · 20% · 14%
  8. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Panathinaikos – Borac 64% · 21% · 15%
  9. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Riga FC – Kairat Almaty 43% · 26% · 31%
  10. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Universitatea Craiova – Getafe 28% · 26% · 46%
  11. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Atalanta – Pafos 77% · 15% · 8%
  12. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Brann – Lincoln Red Imps 72% · 17% · 11%
  13. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris 79% · 14% · 7%
  14. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Copenhagen – Braga 41% · 26% · 33%
  15. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Freiburg – Jablonec 72% · 17% · 11%
  16. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Hearts – Nordsjælland 41% · 26% · 33%
  17. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Sint-Truidense – Iberia Tbilisi 61% · 22% · 17%
  18. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Twente – Thun 58% · 23% · 19%

Who has the most at stake

The teams whose chances of going through move most with this matchday's result.

TeamFixtureNowIf they winIf they lose
EgnatiaEgnatia – Midtjylland40%70%28%
Kairat AlmatyRiga FC – Kairat Almaty43%67%26%
BoracPanathinaikos – Borac35%67%26%
KuPS KuopioKuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor47%71%31%
Riga FCRiga FC – Kairat Almaty53%72%33%

Frequently asked questions

When is Conference League matchday 1 played?

On 15 October, across 18 fixtures.

Which team has the most at stake on matchday 1?

Egnatia. A win lifts their chances of going through to 70%, a defeat drops them to 28% — a swing of about 42 percentage points.

How many points are needed to qualify?

In the simulations 12 points usually secure the top 8, and 7 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.

Other matchdays