Knockout Math
Latviski

Egnatia vs Midtjylland: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45

EgnatiaLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 1
MidtjyllandLeague phase not started yet
19%Egnatia win
23%Draw
58%Midtjylland win

The model gives Egnatia a 19% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Midtjylland 58%. Egnatia's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 70%, a defeat to 28%. Midtjylland's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 80%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Egnatia: top 8Egnatia: throughMidtjylland: top 8Midtjylland: through
Now4%40%47%92%
Egnatia win12%70%22%80%
Draw3%44%35%89%
Midtjylland win1%28%60%97%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%

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