Knockout Math
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Gent vs Aarhus: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45

GentLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 1
AarhusLeague phase not started yet
50%Gent win
25%Draw
25%Aarhus win

The model gives Gent a 50% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Aarhus 25%. Gent's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 66%. Aarhus's chance of going through is 79% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 70%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Gent: top 8Gent: throughAarhus: top 8Aarhus: through
Now28%82%24%79%
Gent win41%92%13%70%
Draw18%77%23%82%
Aarhus win11%66%45%94%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

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