Hajduk Split vs Ajax: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45
Hajduk SplitLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 1
AjaxLeague phase not started yet
28%Hajduk Split win
26%Draw
46%Ajax win
The model gives Hajduk Split a 28% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Ajax 46%. Hajduk Split's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 59%. Ajax's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 70%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Hajduk Split: top 8 | Hajduk Split: through | Ajax: top 8 | Ajax: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 17% | 71% | 30% | 84% |
| Hajduk Split win | 34% | 90% | 13% | 70% |
| Draw | 14% | 72% | 23% | 81% |
| Ajax win | 8% | 59% | 45% | 94% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 1 fixtures
- Lugano – Crvena Zvezda
- Gent – Aarhus
- Egnatia – Midtjylland
- KuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor
- Mjällby – Inter Escaldes
- Panathinaikos – Borac
- CSKA Sofia – Monaco
- Riga FC – Kairat Almaty
- Universitatea Craiova – Getafe
- Atalanta – Pafos
- Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris
- Copenhagen – Braga
- Twente – Thun
- Hearts – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Iberia Tbilisi
- Freiburg – Jablonec
- Brann – Lincoln Red Imps