What does Riga FC need to go through in the Conference League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

Riga FC will play 6 league-phase matches, 3 at home and 3 away. First match: 15 October, at home against Kairat Almaty. In our simulations Riga FC go through (24th place or better) in 53% of cases and make the top 8 in 7%. 7 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 8 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Jablonec (matchday 3) and Kairat Almaty (matchday 1): each result moves the chances by about 40 percentage points.

–league position (not started yet)

0points from 0 matches

53%chance of going through (top 24)

7%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 31st, average 22.6.

Riga FC matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Thursday 15 October, 18:45

HomeKairat Almaty –

Win 43%, draw 26%, defeat 31%

Chance of going through:If they win72%If they draw47%If they lose33%
Matchday 2Thursday 22 October, 18:45

AwayPafos –

Win 23%, draw 24%, defeat 53%

Chance of going through:If they win79%If they draw57%If they lose40%
Matchday 3Thursday 5 November, 21:00

HomeJablonec –

Win 40%, draw 26%, defeat 34%

Chance of going through:If they win73%If they draw48%If they lose33%
Matchday 4Thursday 26 November, 18:45

AwayKauno Žalgiris –

Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%

Chance of going through:If they win76%If they draw53%If they lose36%
Matchday 5Thursday 10 December, 18:45

HomeAtalanta –

Win 11%, draw 18%, defeat 71%

Chance of going through:If they win81%If they draw61%If they lose47%
Matchday 6Thursday 17 December, 21:00

AwayBorac –

Win 34%, draw 26%, defeat 40%

Chance of going through:If they win75%If they draw51%If they lose35%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Riga FC collect in the league phase.

00%

10%

20%

30%

40%

5<1%

615%

776%

8>99%

9100%

10100%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16unlikely

17unlikely

18unlikely

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Riga FC finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Projected Conference League table

The league phase has not started yet, so teams are ordered by their average projected position. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

How the league phase works

The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.