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Conference League 2026/27: every team's chances of going through

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

The league phase starts on 15 October, and every team will play 6 matches. The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Atalanta (85%), Brighton (58%) and Monaco (52%). The tightest calls are Jablonec, Thun and CSKA Sofia, whose chances of going through are close to 50%. In the simulations, 12 points usually secure the top 8 and 7 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.

Projected table and chances

The league phase has not started yet, so teams are ordered by their average projected position. Click a team to see its fixtures and scenarios.

#TeamPGDPtsTop 8ThroughOut
1Atalanta00085%99%1%
2Brighton00058%96%4%
3Monaco00052%95%5%
4Freiburg00051%94%6%
5Midtjylland00047%92%8%
6Copenhagen00044%91%9%
7Braga00042%91%9%
8Getafe00042%91%9%
9Twente00036%89%11%
10Crvena Zvezda00035%88%12%
11Ajax00030%84%16%
12Gent00028%82%18%
13Trabzonspor00024%79%21%
14Aarhus00024%79%21%
15Mjällby00021%79%21%
16Brann00019%75%25%
17Panathinaikos00018%74%26%
18Hajduk Split00017%71%29%
19Nordsjælland00017%72%28%
20Hearts00014%67%33%
21Sint-Truidense00013%67%33%
22Universitatea Craiova00013%66%34%
23Lugano00013%65%35%
24Pafos0008%55%45%
25CSKA Sofia0008%53%47%
26Riga FC0007%53%47%
27Jablonec0006%50%50%
28Thun0006%48%52%
29KuPS Kuopio0006%47%53%
30Kairat Almaty0004%43%57%
31Egnatia0004%40%60%
32Kauno Žalgiris0004%40%60%
33Borac0003%35%65%
34Iberia Tbilisi0002%25%75%
35Inter Escaldes000<1%12%88%
36Lincoln Red Imps000<1%11%89%

Matchday 1 fixtures

Model chances for each match: home win, draw, away win. Times in your time zone.

  1. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 CSKA Sofia – Monaco 20% · 23% · 56%
  2. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Egnatia – Midtjylland 19% · 23% · 58%
  3. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Gent – Aarhus 50% · 25% · 25%
  4. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Hajduk Split – Ajax 28% · 26% · 46%
  5. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 KuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor 29% · 26% · 45%
  6. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Lugano – Crvena Zvezda 36% · 26% · 38%
  7. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Mjällby – Inter Escaldes 67% · 20% · 14%
  8. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Panathinaikos – Borac 64% · 21% · 15%
  9. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Riga FC – Kairat Almaty 43% · 26% · 31%
  10. Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Universitatea Craiova – Getafe 28% · 26% · 46%
  11. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Atalanta – Pafos 77% · 15% · 8%
  12. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Brann – Lincoln Red Imps 72% · 17% · 11%
  13. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris 79% · 14% · 7%
  14. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Copenhagen – Braga 41% · 26% · 33%
  15. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Freiburg – Jablonec 72% · 17% · 11%
  16. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Hearts – Nordsjælland 41% · 26% · 33%
  17. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Sint-Truidense – Iberia Tbilisi 61% · 22% · 17%
  18. Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Twente – Thun 58% · 23% · 19%

How many points are needed?

How often a team finishing on each points total ends in the top 8 or at least 24th across the simulations.

6Top 2417%Top 80%
7Top 2479%Top 80%
8Top 24>99%Top 80%
9Top 24100%Top 8<1%
10Top 24100%Top 83%
11Top 24100%Top 835%
12Top 24100%Top 880%
13Top 24100%Top 899%
14Top 24100%Top 8100%

How the league phase works

The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

All team pages