Atalanta vs Pafos: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00
AtalantaLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 1
PafosLeague phase not started yet
77%Atalanta win
15%Draw
8%Pafos win
The model gives Atalanta a 77% chance of winning, a draw 15% and Pafos 8%. Atalanta's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. Pafos's chance of going through is 55% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 51%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Atalanta: top 8 | Atalanta: through | Pafos: top 8 | Pafos: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 85% | 99% | 8% | 55% |
| Atalanta win | 90% | >99% | 5% | 51% |
| Draw | 73% | 99% | 11% | 65% |
| Pafos win | 59% | 97% | 27% | 84% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–013%
3–011%
1–011%
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%
Other matchday 1 fixtures
- Lugano – Crvena Zvezda
- Hajduk Split – Ajax
- Gent – Aarhus
- Egnatia – Midtjylland
- KuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor
- Mjällby – Inter Escaldes
- Panathinaikos – Borac
- CSKA Sofia – Monaco
- Riga FC – Kairat Almaty
- Universitatea Craiova – Getafe
- Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris
- Copenhagen – Braga
- Twente – Thun
- Hearts – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Iberia Tbilisi
- Freiburg – Jablonec
- Brann – Lincoln Red Imps