Freiburg vs Jablonec: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00
FreiburgLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 1
JablonecLeague phase not started yet
72%Freiburg win
17%Draw
11%Jablonec win
The model gives Freiburg a 72% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Jablonec 11%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 80%. Jablonec's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 43%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Freiburg: top 8 | Freiburg: through | Jablonec: top 8 | Jablonec: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 51% | 94% | 6% | 50% |
| Freiburg win | 60% | 97% | 3% | 43% |
| Draw | 34% | 89% | 7% | 60% |
| Jablonec win | 23% | 80% | 22% | 82% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
Other matchday 1 fixtures
- Lugano – Crvena Zvezda
- Hajduk Split – Ajax
- Gent – Aarhus
- Egnatia – Midtjylland
- KuPS Kuopio – Trabzonspor
- Mjällby – Inter Escaldes
- Panathinaikos – Borac
- CSKA Sofia – Monaco
- Riga FC – Kairat Almaty
- Universitatea Craiova – Getafe
- Atalanta – Pafos
- Brighton – Kauno Žalgiris
- Copenhagen – Braga
- Twente – Thun
- Hearts – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Iberia Tbilisi
- Brann – Lincoln Red Imps