Knockout Math
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Iberia Tbilisi vs Crvena Zvezda: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Iberia TbilisiLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 5
Crvena ZvezdaLeague phase not started yet
21%Iberia Tbilisi win
24%Draw
55%Crvena Zvezda win

The model gives Iberia Tbilisi a 21% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Crvena Zvezda 55%. Iberia Tbilisi's chance of going through is 25% now: a win would take it to 52%, a defeat to 15%. Crvena Zvezda's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 72%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Iberia Tbilisi: top 8Iberia Tbilisi: throughCrvena Zvezda: top 8Crvena Zvezda: through
Now2%25%35%88%
Iberia Tbilisi win6%52%14%72%
Draw1%26%24%84%
Crvena Zvezda win<1%15%48%95%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

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