Knockout Math
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Mjällby vs Pafos: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

MjällbyLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 5
PafosLeague phase not started yet
43%Mjällby win
26%Draw
31%Pafos win

The model gives Mjällby a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Pafos 31%. Mjällby's chance of going through is 79% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 63%. Pafos's chance of going through is 55% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 38%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Mjällby: top 8Mjällby: throughPafos: top 8Pafos: through
Now21%79%8%55%
Mjällby win35%92%2%38%
Draw13%76%6%55%
Pafos win7%63%17%79%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

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