Mjällby vs Pafos: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00
MjällbyLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 5
PafosLeague phase not started yet
43%Mjällby win
26%Draw
31%Pafos win
The model gives Mjällby a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Pafos 31%. Mjällby's chance of going through is 79% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 63%. Pafos's chance of going through is 55% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 38%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Mjällby: top 8 | Mjällby: through | Pafos: top 8 | Pafos: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 21% | 79% | 8% | 55% |
| Mjällby win | 35% | 92% | 2% | 38% |
| Draw | 13% | 76% | 6% | 55% |
| Pafos win | 7% | 63% | 17% | 79% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Universitatea Craiova
- Copenhagen – Lugano
- Iberia Tbilisi – Crvena Zvezda
- Getafe – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – CSKA Sofia
- Lincoln Red Imps – Midtjylland
- Riga FC – Atalanta
- Freiburg – Panathinaikos
- Brann – Braga
- Trabzonspor – Jablonec
- Aarhus – Twente
- Brighton – Monaco
- Thun – Gent
- Hearts – Borac
- Hajduk Split – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Ajax
- Egnatia – Kauno Žalgiris