Aarhus vs Twente: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00
AarhusLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 5
TwenteLeague phase not started yet
38%Aarhus win
26%Draw
35%Twente win
The model gives Aarhus a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Twente 35%. Aarhus's chance of going through is 79% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 65%. Twente's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 81%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Aarhus: top 8 | Aarhus: through | Twente: top 8 | Twente: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 24% | 79% | 36% | 89% |
| Aarhus win | 40% | 93% | 19% | 81% |
| Draw | 18% | 78% | 32% | 89% |
| Twente win | 10% | 65% | 59% | 97% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Universitatea Craiova
- Copenhagen – Lugano
- Iberia Tbilisi – Crvena Zvezda
- Getafe – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – CSKA Sofia
- Lincoln Red Imps – Midtjylland
- Riga FC – Atalanta
- Freiburg – Panathinaikos
- Brann – Braga
- Trabzonspor – Jablonec
- Brighton – Monaco
- Thun – Gent
- Hearts – Borac
- Hajduk Split – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Ajax
- Egnatia – Kauno Žalgiris
- Mjällby – Pafos