Copenhagen vs Lugano: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45
CopenhagenLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 5
LuganoLeague phase not started yet
55%Copenhagen win
24%Draw
21%Lugano win
The model gives Copenhagen a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Lugano 21%. Copenhagen's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 79%. Lugano's chance of going through is 65% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 56%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Copenhagen: top 8 | Copenhagen: through | Lugano: top 8 | Lugano: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 44% | 91% | 13% | 65% |
| Copenhagen win | 57% | 97% | 7% | 56% |
| Draw | 31% | 88% | 12% | 69% |
| Lugano win | 21% | 79% | 31% | 86% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Crvena Zvezda
- Getafe – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – CSKA Sofia
- Lincoln Red Imps – Midtjylland
- Riga FC – Atalanta
- Freiburg – Panathinaikos
- Brann – Braga
- Trabzonspor – Jablonec
- Aarhus – Twente
- Brighton – Monaco
- Thun – Gent
- Hearts – Borac
- Hajduk Split – Nordsjælland
- Sint-Truidense – Ajax
- Egnatia – Kauno Žalgiris
- Mjällby – Pafos