Knockout Math
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Egnatia vs Kauno Žalgiris: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

EgnatiaLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 5
Kauno ŽalgirisLeague phase not started yet
38%Egnatia win
26%Draw
35%Kauno Žalgiris win

The model gives Egnatia a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Kauno Žalgiris 35%. Egnatia's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 63%, a defeat to 21%. Kauno Žalgiris's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 63%, a defeat to 22%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Egnatia: top 8Egnatia: throughKauno Žalgiris: top 8Kauno Žalgiris: through
Now4%40%4%40%
Egnatia win8%63%1%22%
Draw2%34%2%36%
Kauno Žalgiris win1%21%8%63%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

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