Knockout Math
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Freiburg vs Panathinaikos: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

FreiburgLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 5
PanathinaikosLeague phase not started yet
61%Freiburg win
22%Draw
17%Panathinaikos win

The model gives Freiburg a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Panathinaikos 17%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 84%. Panathinaikos's chance of going through is 74% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 68%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Freiburg: top 8Freiburg: throughPanathinaikos: top 8Panathinaikos: through
Now51%94%18%74%
Freiburg win64%98%11%68%
Draw37%91%20%79%
Panathinaikos win25%84%43%93%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

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