Knockout Math
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Jagiellonia vs Crystal Palace: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Jagiellonia21st, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Crystal Palace2nd, 3 pts
23%Jagiellonia win
25%Draw
52%Crystal Palace win

The model gives Jagiellonia a 23% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Crystal Palace 52%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 66%, a defeat to 29%. Crystal Palace's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Jagiellonia: top 8Jagiellonia: throughCrystal Palace: top 8Crystal Palace: through
Now3%41%45%94%
Jagiellonia win9%66%26%86%
Draw3%41%35%92%
Crystal Palace win1%29%59%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–112%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

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