Knockout Math
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Leverkusen vs Beşiktaş: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Leverkusen8th, 3 pts
–Matchday 6
Beşiktaş4th, 3 pts
64%Leverkusen win
21%Draw
15%Beşiktaş win

The model gives Leverkusen a 64% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Beşiktaş 15%. Leverkusen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 81%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Leverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: throughBeşiktaş: top 8Beşiktaş: through
Now75%99%25%85%
Leverkusen win84%>99%18%81%
Draw66%98%29%89%
Beşiktaş win51%96%50%97%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%

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