Knockout Math
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What does Jagiellonia need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Jagiellonia are 21st with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, at home against Ararat-Armenia. In our simulations Jagiellonia go through (24th place or better) in 40% of cases and make the top 8 in 3%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Levski Sofia (matchday 4) and Anderlecht (matchday 3): each result moves the chances by about 36 percentage points.

21stleague position
0point from 1 match
40%chance of going through (top 24)
3%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 31st, average 25.4.

Jagiellonia matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00
    AwayOlympiacos1–2
    Win 15%, draw 21%, defeat 64%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    HomeArarat-Armenia –
    Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%
    Chance of going through:If they win52%If they draw27%If they lose18%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    HomeAnderlecht –
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 38%
    Chance of going through:If they win60%If they draw36%If they lose25%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    AwayLevski Sofia –
    Win 34%, draw 26%, defeat 40%
    Chance of going through:If they win61%If they draw36%If they lose25%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    AwaySunderland –
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:If they win66%If they draw43%If they lose30%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    HomeCrystal Palace –
    Win 23%, draw 25%, defeat 52%
    Chance of going through:If they win64%If they draw41%If they lose28%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    HomeLyon –
    Win 23%, draw 25%, defeat 52%
    Chance of going through:If they win64%If they draw39%If they lose30%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwayViktoria Plzeň –
    Win 23%, draw 24%, defeat 53%
    Chance of going through:If they win65%If they draw40%If they lose29%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Jagiellonia collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
810%
953%
1095%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17unlikely
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Jagiellonia finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete350%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos390%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia345%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva128%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz151%
  21. 21Jagiellonia040%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia020%
  28. 28Celtic053%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille083%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia011%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň050%
  35. 35Lech Poznań034%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen062%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams