Lech Poznań vs Ferencváros: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00
Lech Poznań35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Ferencváros6th, 3 pts
38%Lech Poznań win
26%Draw
35%Ferencváros win
The model gives Lech Poznań a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Ferencváros 35%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 51%, a defeat to 18%. Ferencváros's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 72%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Lech Poznań: top 8 | Lech Poznań: through | Ferencváros: top 8 | Ferencváros: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 33% | 20% | 83% |
| Lech Poznań win | 4% | 51% | 9% | 72% |
| Draw | 1% | 27% | 16% | 82% |
| Ferencváros win | <1% | 18% | 36% | 95% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- AZ Alkmaar – Sturm Graz
- Ararat-Armenia – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Juventus
- Jagiellonia – Crystal Palace
- Marseille – Celta
- Omonia – Celtic
- Anderlecht – Hoffenheim
- Rennes – GNK Dinamo
- Milan – Sunderland
- Bournemouth – Viktoria Plzeň
- Leverkusen – Beşiktaş
- Salzburg – Sparta Praha
- Celje – Olympiacos
- Lyon – Union SG
- Levski Sofia – Lillestrøm
- Real Sociedad – Torreense
- Benfica – OFI Crete