AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45
AZ Alkmaar25th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Sturm Graz20th, 1 pts
55%AZ Alkmaar win
24%Draw
21%Sturm Graz win
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Sturm Graz 21%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 75% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 53%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 41%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| AZ Alkmaar: top 8 | AZ Alkmaar: through | Sturm Graz: top 8 | Sturm Graz: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 14% | 75% | 5% | 52% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 21% | 86% | 2% | 41% |
| Draw | 8% | 67% | 5% | 55% |
| Sturm Graz win | 4% | 53% | 14% | 77% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
Other matchday 6 fixtures
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- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Juventus
- Jagiellonia – Crystal Palace
- Marseille – Celta
- Omonia – Celtic
- Anderlecht – Hoffenheim
- Rennes – GNK Dinamo
- Milan – Sunderland
- Bournemouth – Viktoria Plzeň
- Leverkusen – Beşiktaş
- Salzburg – Sparta Praha
- Lech Poznań – Ferencváros
- Celje – Olympiacos
- Lyon – Union SG
- Levski Sofia – Lillestrøm
- Real Sociedad – Torreense
- Benfica – OFI Crete