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What does Crystal Palace need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Crystal Palace are 2nd with 3 points. Next match: 15 October, away against Lyon. In our simulations Crystal Palace go through (24th place or better) in 94% of cases and make the top 8 in 45%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Sparta Praha (matchday 7) and Jagiellonia (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 14 percentage points.

2ndleague position
3point from 1 match
94%chance of going through (top 24)
45%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 4th, average 10.9.

Crystal Palace matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    HomeLech Poznań4–0
    Win 64%, draw 21%, defeat 15%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    AwayLyon –
    Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 44%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose90%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    AwayBeşiktaş –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw94%If they lose88%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    HomeHoffenheim –
    Win 47%, draw 26%, defeat 28%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw93%If they lose87%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    HomeReal Sociedad –
    Win 47%, draw 26%, defeat 28%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw94%If they lose86%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    AwayJagiellonia –
    Win 52%, draw 25%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw92%If they lose85%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    HomeSparta Praha –
    Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw92%If they lose84%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwaySalzburg –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw94%If they lose88%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Crystal Palace collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
4unlikely
50%
60%
70%
815%
975%
1098%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24100%
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Crystal Palace finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros382%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense361%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland394%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva128%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo153%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia040%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim070%
  30. 30Milan094%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille083%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia011%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň050%
  35. 35Lech Poznań034%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen062%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams