Milan vs Sunderland: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00
Milan30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Sunderland16th, 3 pts
64%Milan win
21%Draw
15%Sunderland win
The model gives Milan a 64% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Sunderland 15%. Milan's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 87%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 91%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Milan: top 8 | Milan: through | Sunderland: top 8 | Sunderland: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 46% | 95% | 42% | 93% |
| Milan win | 57% | 98% | 33% | 91% |
| Draw | 31% | 92% | 47% | 95% |
| Sunderland win | 21% | 87% | 71% | 99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
Other matchday 6 fixtures
- AZ Alkmaar – Sturm Graz
- Ararat-Armenia – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Juventus
- Jagiellonia – Crystal Palace
- Marseille – Celta
- Omonia – Celtic
- Anderlecht – Hoffenheim
- Rennes – GNK Dinamo
- Bournemouth – Viktoria Plzeň
- Leverkusen – Beşiktaş
- Salzburg – Sparta Praha
- Lech Poznań – Ferencváros
- Celje – Olympiacos
- Lyon – Union SG
- Levski Sofia – Lillestrøm
- Real Sociedad – Torreense
- Benfica – OFI Crete