Knockout Math
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Milan vs Sunderland: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 21:00

Milan30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
Sunderland16th, 3 pts
64%Milan win
21%Draw
15%Sunderland win

The model gives Milan a 64% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Sunderland 15%. Milan's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 87%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 91%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Milan: top 8Milan: throughSunderland: top 8Sunderland: through
Now46%95%42%93%
Milan win57%98%33%91%
Draw31%92%47%95%
Sunderland win21%87%71%99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%

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