Knockout Math
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Ararat-Armenia vs N.E.C. Nijmegen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Ararat-Armenia33rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 6
N.E.C. Nijmegen36th, 0 pts
25%Ararat-Armenia win
25%Draw
51%N.E.C. Nijmegen win

The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 25% chance of winning, a draw 25% and N.E.C. Nijmegen 51%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 24%, a defeat to 5%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 41%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Ararat-Armenia: top 8Ararat-Armenia: throughN.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: through
Now<1%10%9%63%
Ararat-Armenia win1%24%2%41%
Draw<1%9%5%55%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win<1%5%14%77%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

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