Knockout Math
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Rennes vs GNK Dinamo: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 6 · Thursday 10 December, 18:45

Rennes17th, 1 pts
–Matchday 6
GNK Dinamo19th, 1 pts
54%Rennes win
24%Draw
22%GNK Dinamo win

The model gives Rennes a 54% chance of winning, a draw 24% and GNK Dinamo 22%. Rennes's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 67%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 43%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Rennes: top 8Rennes: throughGNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: through
Now23%83%6%54%
Rennes win32%92%3%43%
Draw14%78%5%56%
GNK Dinamo win8%67%15%78%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

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