Knockout Math
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Midtjylland vs Ajax: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

MidtjyllandLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 3
AjaxLeague phase not started yet
38%Midtjylland win
26%Draw
35%Ajax win

The model gives Midtjylland a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Ajax 35%. Midtjylland's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. Ajax's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 74%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Midtjylland: top 8Midtjylland: throughAjax: top 8Ajax: through
Now47%92%30%84%
Midtjylland win68%98%15%74%
Draw42%92%25%84%
Ajax win28%86%51%95%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

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