Knockout Math
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Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

AtalantaLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 3
Kairat AlmatyLeague phase not started yet
82%Atalanta win
12%Draw
6%Kairat Almaty win

The model gives Atalanta a 82% chance of winning, a draw 12% and Kairat Almaty 6%. Atalanta's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. Kairat Almaty's chance of going through is 43% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 39%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Atalanta: top 8Atalanta: throughKairat Almaty: top 8Kairat Almaty: through
Now85%99%4%43%
Atalanta win89%>99%3%39%
Draw70%98%7%55%
Kairat Almaty win57%97%18%77%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
3–012%
1–010%
4–08%
2–18%
3–17%

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