Aarhus vs Braga: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45
AarhusLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 3
BragaLeague phase not started yet
33%Aarhus win
26%Draw
41%Braga win
The model gives Aarhus a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Braga 41%. Aarhus's chance of going through is 79% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 67%. Braga's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 83%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Aarhus: top 8 | Aarhus: through | Braga: top 8 | Braga: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 24% | 79% | 42% | 91% |
| Aarhus win | 43% | 94% | 23% | 83% |
| Draw | 19% | 79% | 36% | 91% |
| Braga win | 11% | 67% | 62% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Atalanta – Kairat Almaty
- Midtjylland – Ajax
- Thun – Hearts
- Crvena Zvezda – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – Gent
- Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split
- Mjällby – Borac
- Trabzonspor – Freiburg
- Monaco – Nordsjælland
- Copenhagen – Iberia Tbilisi
- Lugano – Kauno Žalgiris
- Twente – Pafos
- Getafe – Brighton
- Sint-Truidense – Brann
- Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia
- Riga FC – Jablonec
- Universitatea Craiova – Egnatia