Knockout Math
Latviski

Aarhus vs Braga: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

AarhusLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 3
BragaLeague phase not started yet
33%Aarhus win
26%Draw
41%Braga win

The model gives Aarhus a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Braga 41%. Aarhus's chance of going through is 79% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 67%. Braga's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 83%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Aarhus: top 8Aarhus: throughBraga: top 8Braga: through
Now24%79%42%91%
Aarhus win43%94%23%83%
Draw19%79%36%91%
Braga win11%67%62%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Other matchday 3 fixtures