Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
LuganoLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 3
Kauno ŽalgirisLeague phase not started yet
55%Lugano win
24%Draw
21%Kauno Žalgiris win
The model gives Lugano a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Kauno Žalgiris 21%. Lugano's chance of going through is 65% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 39%. Kauno Žalgiris's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 69%, a defeat to 28%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Lugano: top 8 | Lugano: through | Kauno Žalgiris: top 8 | Kauno Žalgiris: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 13% | 65% | 4% | 40% |
| Lugano win | 19% | 79% | 1% | 28% |
| Draw | 7% | 56% | 3% | 43% |
| Kauno Žalgiris win | 3% | 39% | 12% | 69% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Aarhus – Braga
- Atalanta – Kairat Almaty
- Midtjylland – Ajax
- Thun – Hearts
- Crvena Zvezda – Inter Escaldes
- KuPS Kuopio – Gent
- Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split
- Mjällby – Borac
- Trabzonspor – Freiburg
- Monaco – Nordsjælland
- Copenhagen – Iberia Tbilisi
- Twente – Pafos
- Getafe – Brighton
- Sint-Truidense – Brann
- Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia
- Riga FC – Jablonec
- Universitatea Craiova – Egnatia