Knockout Math
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Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October, 18:45

Sabah34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
10%Sabah win
17%Draw
73%Borussia Dortmund win

The model gives Sabah a 10% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Borussia Dortmund 73%. Sabah's chance of going through is 2% now: a win would take it to 8%, a defeat to 1%. Borussia Dortmund's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Sabah: top 8Sabah: throughBorussia Dortmund: top 8Borussia Dortmund: through
Now<1%2%34%95%
Sabah win<1%8%13%85%
Draw0%2%20%91%
Borussia Dortmund win0%1%41%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–213%
0–111%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%

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