Bayern München vs Arsenal: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
Bayern München2nd, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Arsenal15th, 3 pts
47%Bayern München win
26%Draw
28%Arsenal win
The model gives Bayern München a 47% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Arsenal 28%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 69%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 67%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Bayern München: top 8 | Bayern München: through | Arsenal: top 8 | Arsenal: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 83% | >99% | 77% | >99% |
| Bayern München win | 93% | 100% | 67% | >99% |
| Draw | 80% | >99% | 78% | >99% |
| Arsenal win | 69% | 99% | 92% | 100% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven
- Liverpool – Villarreal
- Manchester City – AEK Athens
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
- Como – Manchester United
- Lille – Galatasaray
- Aston Villa – Viking
- Club Brugge – Lens
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Real Madrid – Leipzig
- Real Betis – Feyenoord
- Sporting CP – LASK