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What does Borussia Dortmund need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Borussia Dortmund are 12th with 3 points. Next match: 14 October, away against Bodø/Glimt. In our simulations Borussia Dortmund go through (24th place or better) in 95% of cases and make the top 8 in 35%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 8 game at home against AEK Athens: winning or losing it moves the chances by 14 percentage points.

12thleague position
3point from 1 match
95%chance of going through (top 24)
35%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 8th, average 12.

Borussia Dortmund matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 21:00
    HomeVillarreal3–2
    Win 50%, draw 25%, defeat 25%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
    AwayBodø/Glimt –
    Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw96%If they lose89%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 18:45
    AwaySabah –
    Win 73%, draw 17%, defeat 10%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw91%If they lose84%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
    HomeReal Betis –
    Win 54%, draw 24%, defeat 22%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw94%If they lose89%
  5. Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
    AwayArsenal –
    Win 15%, draw 21%, defeat 64%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw97%If they lose94%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
    HomeInter –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw96%If they lose92%
  7. Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00
    AwayAston Villa –
    Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw96%If they lose92%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeAEK Athens –
    Win 68%, draw 19%, defeat 13%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw91%If they lose85%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Borussia Dortmund collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
4unlikely
5unlikely
60%
70%
819%
968%
1097%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24100%
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Borussia Dortmund finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis381%
  10. 10Lens375%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma174%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge035%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray045%
  30. 30Viking09%
  31. 31Porto068%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams