Knockout Math
Latviski

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 21:00

Inter26th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Shakhtar Donetsk18th, 1 pts
76%Inter win
16%Draw
9%Shakhtar Donetsk win

The model gives Inter a 76% chance of winning, a draw 16% and Shakhtar Donetsk 9%. Inter's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 83%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 74%, a defeat to 39%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Inter: top 8Inter: throughShakhtar Donetsk: top 8Shakhtar Donetsk: through
Now36%95%2%44%
Inter win43%97%1%39%
Draw21%91%2%53%
Shakhtar Donetsk win12%83%8%74%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

2–013%
1–011%
3–011%
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%

Other matchday 3 fixtures