Lille vs Galatasaray: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 18:45
Lille24th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Galatasaray29th, 0 pts
44%Lille win
26%Draw
30%Galatasaray win
The model gives Lille a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Galatasaray 30%. Lille's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 65%, a defeat to 26%. Galatasaray's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 68%, a defeat to 29%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Lille: top 8 | Lille: through | Galatasaray: top 8 | Galatasaray: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 47% | 2% | 44% |
| Lille win | 3% | 65% | <1% | 29% |
| Draw | 1% | 39% | 1% | 43% |
| Galatasaray win | <1% | 26% | 4% | 68% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven
- Liverpool – Villarreal
- Manchester City – AEK Athens
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
- Como – Manchester United
- Aston Villa – Viking
- Club Brugge – Lens
- Bayern München – Arsenal
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Real Madrid – Leipzig
- Real Betis – Feyenoord
- Sporting CP – LASK