Knockout Math
Latviski

Como vs Manchester United: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 18:45

Como5th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
36%Como win
26%Draw
38%Manchester United win

The model gives Como a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Manchester United 38%. Como's chance of going through is 78% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 65%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 76%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Como: top 8Como: throughManchester United: top 8Manchester United: through
Now10%78%19%86%
Como win19%92%9%76%
Draw8%77%15%86%
Manchester United win4%65%32%96%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Other matchday 3 fixtures