Manchester City vs AEK Athens: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
Manchester City8th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
AEK Athens16th, 3 pts
80%Manchester City win
13%Draw
7%AEK Athens win
The model gives Manchester City a 80% chance of winning, a draw 13% and AEK Athens 7%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 92%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 42% now: a win would take it to 76%, a defeat to 38%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Manchester City: top 8 | Manchester City: through | AEK Athens: top 8 | AEK Athens: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 54% | 98% | 2% | 42% |
| Manchester City win | 59% | 99% | 1% | 38% |
| Draw | 35% | 95% | 2% | 51% |
| AEK Athens win | 25% | 92% | 8% | 76% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–013%
3–012%
1–010%
2–18%
4–08%
3–17%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven
- Liverpool – Villarreal
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
- Como – Manchester United
- Lille – Galatasaray
- Aston Villa – Viking
- Club Brugge – Lens
- Bayern München – Arsenal
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Real Madrid – Leipzig
- Real Betis – Feyenoord
- Sporting CP – LASK