Liverpool vs Villarreal: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
Liverpool14th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Villarreal21st, 0 pts
67%Liverpool win
20%Draw
14%Villarreal win
The model gives Liverpool a 67% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Villarreal 14%. Liverpool's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 54%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 56%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Liverpool: top 8 | Liverpool: through | Villarreal: top 8 | Villarreal: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 77% | >99% | 5% | 63% |
| Liverpool win | 85% | >99% | 2% | 56% |
| Draw | 65% | 99% | 5% | 69% |
| Villarreal win | 54% | 99% | 16% | 87% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven
- Manchester City – AEK Athens
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
- Como – Manchester United
- Lille – Galatasaray
- Aston Villa – Viking
- Club Brugge – Lens
- Bayern München – Arsenal
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Real Madrid – Leipzig
- Real Betis – Feyenoord
- Sporting CP – LASK