Knockout Math
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Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October, 21:00

Porto31st, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
PSV Eindhoven20th, 1 pts
45%Porto win
26%Draw
29%PSV Eindhoven win

The model gives Porto a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and PSV Eindhoven 29%. Porto's chance of going through is 66% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 47%. PSV Eindhoven's chance of going through is 66% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 53%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Porto: top 8Porto: throughPSV Eindhoven: top 8PSV Eindhoven: through
Now6%66%6%66%
Porto win11%81%2%53%
Draw3%61%5%67%
PSV Eindhoven win1%47%14%85%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

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