Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
Porto31st, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
PSV Eindhoven20th, 1 pts
45%Porto win
26%Draw
29%PSV Eindhoven win
The model gives Porto a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and PSV Eindhoven 29%. Porto's chance of going through is 66% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 47%. PSV Eindhoven's chance of going through is 66% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 53%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Porto: top 8 | Porto: through | PSV Eindhoven: top 8 | PSV Eindhoven: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 6% | 66% | 6% | 66% |
| Porto win | 11% | 81% | 2% | 53% |
| Draw | 3% | 61% | 5% | 67% |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 1% | 47% | 14% | 85% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava
- Liverpool – Villarreal
- Manchester City – AEK Athens
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
- Como – Manchester United
- Lille – Galatasaray
- Aston Villa – Viking
- Club Brugge – Lens
- Bayern München – Arsenal
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Real Madrid – Leipzig
- Real Betis – Feyenoord
- Sporting CP – LASK