Knockout Math
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Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October, 21:00

Napoli28th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Bodø/Glimt36th, 0 pts
63%Napoli win
21%Draw
16%Bodø/Glimt win

The model gives Napoli a 63% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Bodø/Glimt 16%. Napoli's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 74%. Bodø/Glimt's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 69%, a defeat to 33%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Napoli: top 8Napoli: throughBodø/Glimt: top 8Bodø/Glimt: through
Now21%90%2%41%
Napoli win28%95%1%33%
Draw11%85%2%45%
Bodø/Glimt win6%74%6%69%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

Other matchday 3 fixtures