Aston Villa vs Viking: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
Aston Villa11th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Viking30th, 0 pts
77%Aston Villa win
15%Draw
8%Viking win
The model gives Aston Villa a 77% chance of winning, a draw 15% and Viking 8%. Aston Villa's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 83%. Viking's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 32%, a defeat to 7%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Aston Villa: top 8 | Aston Villa: through | Viking: top 8 | Viking: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 34% | 95% | <1% | 10% |
| Aston Villa win | 39% | 97% | <1% | 7% |
| Draw | 19% | 89% | <1% | 12% |
| Viking win | 13% | 83% | <1% | 32% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–013%
3–011%
1–011%
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven
- Liverpool – Villarreal
- Manchester City – AEK Athens
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
- Como – Manchester United
- Lille – Galatasaray
- Club Brugge – Lens
- Bayern München – Arsenal
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Real Madrid – Leipzig
- Real Betis – Feyenoord
- Sporting CP – LASK