Real Madrid vs Leipzig: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
Real Madrid13th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Leipzig32nd, 0 pts
68%Real Madrid win
19%Draw
13%Leipzig win
The model gives Real Madrid a 68% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Leipzig 13%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 81% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 57%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 57% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 51%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Real Madrid: top 8 | Real Madrid: through | Leipzig: top 8 | Leipzig: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 81% | >99% | 4% | 57% |
| Real Madrid win | 88% | 100% | 2% | 51% |
| Draw | 70% | 99% | 4% | 62% |
| Leipzig win | 57% | 99% | 14% | 82% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha
- Sabah – Borussia Dortmund
- Roma – Slovan Bratislava
- Porto – PSV Eindhoven
- Liverpool – Villarreal
- Manchester City – AEK Athens
- Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona
- Napoli – Bodø/Glimt
- Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid
- Como – Manchester United
- Lille – Galatasaray
- Aston Villa – Viking
- Club Brugge – Lens
- Bayern München – Arsenal
- Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk
- Real Betis – Feyenoord
- Sporting CP – LASK