What does Napoli need to go through in the Champions League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Napoli are 28th with 0 points. Next match: 13 October, away against Villarreal. In our simulations Napoli go through (24th place or better) in 90% of cases and make the top 8 in 21%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Club Brugge (matchday 6) and Bodø/Glimt (matchday 3): each result moves the chances by about 21 percentage points.

28thleague position

0point from 1 match

90%chance of going through (top 24)

21%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 10th, average 14.6.

Napoli matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 21:00

HomeArsenal0–1

Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 46%

Chance of going through:Played
Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00

AwayVillarreal –

Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 36%

Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw90%If they lose82%
Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00

HomeBodø/Glimt –

Win 63%, draw 21%, defeat 16%

Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw84%If they lose76%
Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00

AwayPorto –

Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 36%

Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw90%If they lose82%
Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00

AwayManchester City –

Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%

Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw92%If they lose86%
Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00

HomeClub Brugge –

Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%

Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw86%If they lose75%
Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 18:45

AwaySabah –

Win 75%, draw 16%, defeat 9%

Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw81%If they lose73%
Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00

HomeViking –

Win 78%, draw 14%, defeat 8%

Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw81%If they lose72%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Napoli collect in the league phase.

0unlikely

1unlikely

2unlikely

3unlikely

40%

50%

60%

71%

827%

978%

1099%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16100%

17100%

18100%

19100%

20unlikely

21100%

22unlikely

23unlikely

24unlikely

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Napoli finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

1Paris Saint-Germain3>99%
2Bayern München3>99%
3Barcelona399%
4Manchester United386%
5Como377%
6Sporting CP389%
7Stuttgart388%
8Manchester City398%
9Real Betis382%
10Lens376%
11Aston Villa394%
12Borussia Dortmund395%
13Real Madrid3>99%
14Liverpool3>99%
15Arsenal3>99%
16AEK Athens342%
17Roma174%
18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
19Fenerbahçe159%
20PSV Eindhoven167%
21Villarreal064%
22Slavia Praha021%
23Club Brugge036%
24Lille048%
25Atlético de Madrid089%
26Inter095%
27LASK011%
28Napoli090%
29Galatasaray044%
30Viking09%
31Porto067%
32Leipzig057%
33Feyenoord047%
34Sabah02%
35Slovan Bratislava012%
36Bodø/Glimt040%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.